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My Statistics on Predicting High Risk Dates for Killer Earthquakes
Yearly Earthquake Charts 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004.
As of 6/4/2004, I have totaled the numbers for people killed by earthquakes from 2000 through 2004. These numbers are provided by the United States Geological Service. In column 1 is the year. In column 2 is the total number of deaths from earthquakes during my Earthquake Watches. In column 3 is the total number of deaths from earthquakes. In column 4 is the percent of deaths during Earthquake Watches.
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Earthquake Watches |
Deaths |
During Watches |
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198
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231
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85.7%
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21,030
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21,357
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98.5%
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301
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1,685
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17.9%
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26,434
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29,019
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91.1%
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(As of 6/4/2004) 645
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715
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90.2%
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Percent |
48,608
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53,007
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91.7%
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Professional geologists would consider me an amateur or even a crackpot. They scorn any attempts at predicting dates of higher risk for earthquakes. In some places, there are even laws prohibiting predicting earthquakes. This seems ridiculous to me. What would you think if meteorologists analyzed the weather -- especially for hurricanes, dangerous thunderstorms, and tornadoes -- and just simply did not tell the public their predictions? If you live in an area that has a high risk for earthquakes, I will leave it up to you to decide if there is a correlation in my assessments for earthquake risks.
Earthquakes
Introduction and 1999 chart, A New Earthquake Warning System, my New Earthquake Warning Sensors (important new page!), Long-Term Tectonic Activity,
Yearly Earthquake Charts
2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004,
Latest Info
Special Earthquake Watch Look out Reno, Nevada and West Central California!
I believe the area on the following map is at a high risk for a major quake 6.0 or greater. I believe this because the forces on the earth's crust are now greater than in recent years, and because of the 4.5 magnitude quake that occurred just before a new peak on the second chart -- this is a small section of my 2004 chart.
You can keep track of recent quakes in the California/Nevada area at this USGS site. If you live in any area of the world that has just had a 3.0 magnitude or greater quake, it is my amateur opinion that during this upcoming time frame -- as shown in the graph to the upper right -- you are at a high risk of experiencing a major quake of 6.0 or greater. (Major quakes of 6.0 or greater in magnitude have a high probability of causing injury and death.)
Special Earthquake Watch Look out Brawley, California!
(6/4/2004 Update -- I believe Brawley, CA is still at high risk -- especially during upcoming Earthquake Watches.)
For a few years, I have been watching clusters of quakes around Brawley, California. The most recent quake chart from the USGS on this area, as I write this, is shown below. This large cluster of quakes indicates, to me at least, that the large forces on the earth's crust -- that just peaked on 5/17/2003 after the lunar eclipse -- has created a new break along the fault in the Brawley area.
Some of the previous large clusters at earlier dangerous points are shown below.
Since these clusters form a fairly straight line, I believe, with the upcoming peaks for high forces on the earth's crust -- between the dates of 5/30/2003 to 6/6/2003, and 6/13/2003 to 6/18/2003 -- there is a high risk for a total split along this entire stretch of the fault -- there is a high risk for a major quake. Such a major quake would be very risky to anyone who lives in the areas on the four maps shown above, and could be a risk to anyone in areas adjacent to these areas. I am not giving an Earthquake Warning -- I am posting a Special Earthquake Watch for this area. This is equivalent to a Tornado Watch, that is, conditions are ripe for a major quake at any time. I would not expect that the risk to this area has diminished at all, unless there are no quakes above 3.0 in this area through about July 24 2003. If there are no quakes in this area of 3.0 or larger through July 24, 2003, then, it is my opinion, that the risk has dropped enough to take down this Special Earthquake Watch. To see the historical seismicity for this area go to this web page.
Special Earthquake Watch New Madrid Fault Area
Due to recent quakes in the New Madrid Fault Area I believe, with the upcoming peaks for high forces on the earth's crust -- between the dates of 5/30/2003 to 6/6/2003, and 6/13/2003 to 6/18/2003 -- there is a heightened risk for a major quake in the this area. While this area is does not normally have a large number of earthquakes, the largest recorded earthquake in the continental United States occurred in this area. It is my opinion, the heightened risk lies in the areas between and including the two maps -- from the USGS -- below.
More than 1600 people killed in Algeria Quake.
Is it a coincidence that this major killer quake happened shortly after a lunar eclipse, where the forces on the earth's crust were so high? I don't think so. I sure hope that astronomers stop putting down those people who say that, historically, eclipses portend major earthquakes.
While I may have had my Earthquake Watch going only through 5/20/2003, my chart's peak obviously indicated that the risk for a major quake was still "High" when it hit 18 hours later. In my opinion this is a classic case that shows that while major quakes are still difficult to pinpoint exactly, they are no longer "mysterious". Science is closing in on the exact prediction of major quakes.